| The classic curve theory posits an inverted U-shaped relationship between the rate of civil litigation and economic development, yet it does not indicate whether this relationship is influenced by other factors. Due to the lack of large-scale regional data, existing researches hardly directly test and amend the theory within the Chinese context. This empirical research based on provincial panel data shows that the civil litigation rate in China is characterized by a “decline then rise” temporal pattern and an “east-west divide” spatial pattern. It demonstrates that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the civil litigation rate and economic development, situating presently in the curve’s initial phase where the economy maintains a positive, albeit diminishing, impetus over an extended period. More importantly, the degree of marketization and the level of education play a moderating role in attenuating and reinforcing the curve relationship, respectively. The discovery of this interaction mechanism in China advances theoretical development, leading to the establishment of a new curve theory based on multiple conditions. This contributes to thinking about how to systematically improve the judicial capacity of courts, for instance, by combining the enhancement of internal management efficiency with the construction of predictive mechanisms for region-specific litigation demands, as well as optimizing macro-level policies for social collaborative governance. |
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